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Extra resources for China: issues and options in greenhouse gas emissions control, Parts 63-330

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The inundated land would cover an area the size of Portugal, including the cities of Shanghai and Canton, and would displace 67 million people at current population levels, more than the population of the Philippines. Despite the potential for disastrous consequences associated with human-induced climate change, there is substantial uncertainty in impact predictions and in the climate change process itself. Until the scientific uncertainty associated with the greenhouse effect and its impacts can be reduced, it is rational for China to focus first on a "no-regrets" policy for GHG reduction; that is, those policies or projects that make sense for economic, social, or environmental reasons Page 2 other than GHG reduction.

Whether the constraints are of a Page 8 technical, informational, or institutional nature, the use of GEF resources to overcome barriers to no-regrets projects will result in exceptionally large reductions in GHG emissions per unit of GEF funding. The joint study team believes that the use of GEF resources in this manner will provide the most benefits to China and be the most efficient use of GEF funds for GHG reduction. Where technical or market risk represents a current binding constraint to the adoption of high-efficiency technologies, the GEF can play a critical role in supporting technology transfer through the purchase of technology rights, joint Chinese-international pilot project development programs, and the implementation of demonstration projects.

One of the tools used to explore future climate change is the computerized General Circulation Model, which is used to simulate past and future climate variation. Such models have been used to simulate the effect of increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. 2 While the impacts of future climate change are hard to predict, several studies have been concluded or are underway that explore potential global impacts. Most at risk from climate change will be communities that are least able to adapt and sectors that are most dependent on climate, such as agriculture.

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